Enabling conditions for an equitable and sustainable blue economy

The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a ‘blue economy’—socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries1,2. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity—not just resource availability—are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors1,3,4. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals.MainAs originally conceived by the Small Island Developing States of the United Nations (UN), a blue economy intends to be economically viable (prosperous) and environmentally sustainable, but also culturally appropriate and focused on social equity and well-being1,2. This is reflected in the UN Sustainable Development Goal5 14.7, and in research and policy publications that reference related terms such as ‘blue growth’ and a ‘sustainable ocean economy’2,6,7. However, recent plans from governments, trade associations, civil society and intergovernmental organizations tend to focus primarily on the resources necessary for industrial expansion and economic growth of multiple ocean sectors instead of equitable outcomes from these sectors1,8. These discourses are similar to business-as-usual development, which is worrying given the effects of overexploitation on ocean health9 and coastal economies10. These effects are compounded by gradual stresses and extreme events from climate change10,11, which disproportionately affect vulnerable human populations12,13,14. As a result, some groups have received growing interest in a blue economy with skepticism and expressed concern that it will become a tool by which traditional users are excluded from ocean development15. Following from such sustainability and environmental justice concerns, and building from current blue economy discourses and research, our analysis identifies the areas of investment and research necessary to develop available ocean resources in a manner consistent with a blue economy that is socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable3.Building on available global data (see Supplementary Information 1 for full indicator list and descriptions), we quantify and map the current capacity of geographic or jurisdictional areas to establish an equitable, sustainable, and viable blue economy (‘blue economy capacity’), and analyse the results at global, regional and national scales, considering both biophysical resources for sector development (‘resource availability’), and enabling conditions for subsequent advancement of well-being (‘enabling conditions’)3,6. Enabling conditions comprise criteria related to social equity (human rights, gender equality, group and economic equity, and corruption)16,17, environmental sustainability (including habitat, water quality and biodiversity)18, and economic viability (infrastructure, investment risk, national stability)19,20. Consistent with the transformative vision of a blue economy as discussed above, here we focus on six sectors that rely on living and/or renewable marine resources. These are: bioprospecting (for marine genetic resources and bioactive compounds), blue carbon (involving restoration and conservation of coastal vegetated systems valued in carbon markets), ecotourism (emphasizing education, conservation and local benefits), fisheries, mariculture and ocean energy (offshore wind and tidal)3 (Fig. 1). We evaluate available indicators (for example, governance, resource abundances and distributions; Supplementary Information 1) on the basis of their observed and expected contribution1,2,3,6,21 to blue economy capacity and express them as indices scaled from 1 to 100 (low to high contribution) using a fuzzy logic model (see Methods).